Beyond the UK? The Rise of Chinese Armaments?
During the current epidemic, there are two businesses that are making a lot of money, one of which is naturally vaccines. Except for a small number of anti vaccine activists, most people have already received vaccines. For example, I have received two doses and may need to receive a third booster shot in a while. China has not yet strongly called for the entire population to receive booster shots, but the United States and Europe have already urged everyone to receive them.
Besides vaccines, another thriving business is arms. Previously, some analyses suggested that in the era of the pandemic, with global lockdowns and a significant reduction in communication, why buy military weapons? The arms business will be difficult to do. But the fact is exactly the opposite. The social unrest, economic downturn, and decline in people's living standards brought about by the epidemic will force some countries to take risks and actively provoke regional conflicts. This trick is called 'internal contradictions, external resolution', and after transferring the contradictions, the ruling party's rule will be relatively stable. The best example is India. Let me show you a set of macro numbers. The global economy shrank by -3.1% in 2020. Global military spending increased by 2.6% in 2020. This is equivalent to a difference of 5.7 percentage points. Among them, the US military spending increased by 4.4% year-on-year, while China's military spending increased by 6.8% year-on-year (although the US military spending base is much larger, even if China increases by 6.8%, it is far less than the US). France's military spending increased by 4.5% year-on-year. NATO countries, excluding the United States and France, have a total military expenditure of 28 countries, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. India's military spending, on the other hand, increased by 16% year-on-year (the highest growth rate among major countries in the world). The overall global environment is that the worse the economy, the higher the military spending, and the more satisfied the arms dealers are. In 2020, the total global arms sales reached a historic high of 531 billion US dollars. (Approximately 3.4 trillion RMB.)
In December, a report from the global think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute was released, with the theme of "The pandemic has stopped human mobility, but accelerated arms trafficking". The world's top 100 arms companies have also made a remarkable appearance, telling everyone who sells arms the most diligently in this world.
First place, the United States: selling arms is the only one, far ahead of other countries, accounting for 54% of the market share and taking over half of the arms business.
In second place, China, a rising star in arms sales, has grown rapidly in recent years, surpassing the UK in the past two years and taking a 13% share of the arms market.
Third place UK, fourth place Russia, fifth place France. Create another tableGe, it's even clearer.
The countries that sell arms the most frequently in the world are the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.Fifteen years have passed, but the Five Constants are stillThose five permanent members have occupied a larger share of military supplies than before. The movie 'King of War' satirizes that the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council were originally established to maintain world peace, but ended up being the world's largest arms dealer. Some people say that maintaining peace between major powers is equivalent to maintaining world peace? As long as there is no war among the five permanent members, the world as a whole is peaceful. A more direct understanding is that the Five Constants are not meant to maintain world peace, but rather to uphold the world order centered around the Five Constants. If we take a closer look at the report, from 2015 to 2020, the total amount of arms sales increased by 17% over a five-year period. Especially American companies, accounting for 41 of the world's top 100 arms dealers, had a total military sales of up to $285 billion (1.8 trillion yuan) in 2020.
Among the top ten arms companies in the world, six are from the United States, namely: first, Lockheed Martin (which produces fighter jets, represented by F35 and F22).
Secondly, Thunder God (representative works of radar and anti missile systems, such as the Tomahawk missile and Patriot anti missile system).
Thirdly, Boeing (engine, bomber, space technology, representative works F18, F15, B52).
Fourth, Northrop, Grumman (avionics components, radar, unmanned aerial vehicle, representative work B-21, Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle)
Fifth, universal power (ground attack system, communication system, main battle tank, representative work M1).
Tenth, L3Harris Technologies， (Aerospace technology, wireless devices, spy systems, microwave electronic weapons, representative works include battlefield management networks, unmanned ships.)
Among the top ten arms dealers, the United States accounts for 6. In the past five years, American style arms have been exported to 96 countries around the world, with the Middle East being the major buyer of American arms. 47% of American military equipment is sold to Middle Eastern countries, with Saudi Arabia alone accounting for half of it. So everyone knows why the United States will not impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia no matter how it does whatever it wants. The powerful military industrial complex system in the United States is not just talk. The military industrial complex deeply influences American politics. And in recent years, China has risen to the top, occupying three seats, 7, 8, and 9, among the top ten arms dealers.
The seventh place goes to China Ordnance Industry Group Co., Ltd., headquartered on Sanlihe Road in this unremarkable small building. We mainly sell products such as machine guns, sniper rifles, shotguns, rocket launchers, main battle tanks, etc. Export type main battle tank, VT-4 type.
Eighth place, Aviation Industry Corporation of China. We are familiar with this, the J-20, J-H-7, H-20, Y-20, and Wing Loong unmanned aerial vehicles are all masterpieces of AVIC.
Ninth place, China Electronics Technology Group (CETC) Aerospace Systems, Optoelectronics Technology, Communication Network Technology, etc. Compared to the sales of 280 billion US dollars in the United States, the second ranked China has sales of approximately 66.8 billion US dollars. Chinese arms are mainly sold to Central Asia (Pakistan, etc.), Africa (42% in North Africa, 29% in East Africa), and Central and South America (Argentina, etc.). Compared with the old arms dealer the United States, China still has a certain gap, and the US arms industry is facing an increasingly unfavorable situation, which is quietly triggering a wave of mergers and acquisitions.
According to the National Security Network news report:
The US arms industry may be experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, which means that already strong US arms dealers are working hard to further integrate. In the past decade, the number of US military contractors serving the US government has sharply decreased from 50 to only 6. The 44 disappearing arms companies have either been eaten up by larger arms dealers or gone bankrupt. And in the future, in order to continue to expand the territory of American arms sales, cope with the rising China and seize arms business, the pace of mergers and acquisitions of American arms dealers will only increase but not decrease. Because the current internal trend in the United States is that Chinese arms companies are all state-owned enterprises, which are good at concentrating power. Therefore, the United States will inevitably accelerate internal integration and mergers and acquisitions, expand the scale of arms dealers, and maintain the current American style arms hegemony. Compared with the characteristics of American military equipment, the characteristics of Chinese military equipment are also very distinct. China's military sales have been increasing year after year, and what it is grabbing is not the cake of the United States, but Russia's. In the past, Russia has always been the world's second-largest military power after the United States, but according to the latest report. Nine of the world's top 100 arms companies, including Russia, have seen their sales decrease from 28.2 billion US dollars last year to 26.4 billion US dollars. On the list, the sales share of Russian arms dealers has decreased the most. Maozi's "Diamond Antai" defense company (engaged in anti missile systems) saw a significant drop in sales of 31%, while United Shipbuilding Group saw a 12% drop in sales. One goes and the other goes. China's arms sales amounted to 66.8 billion US dollars, and a considerable portion of it seized the market of Maozi. Because future arms sales will become increasingly diversified, it's not just about selling you a gun, a tank, or a drone, it's all about selling the entire system. The diversification of production lines has gradually put Russia, which has invested less in research and development for decades, at a disadvantage. So Putin also demands an increase in the proportion of military industrial research and development, as well as an increase in the proportion of military industrial civilian sales, to reach 50% by 2030. In addition, the characteristic of Chinese military equipment is that it has the lowest price and the highest cost-effectiveness among its peers. However, excluding political factors, from the perspective of buying and selling, although China's military equipment industry ranks second in the world, there are two major problems.
These two issues may hinder the future advancement of China's arms market.
1. The cost of after-sales service for Chinese military equipment is relatively high.
2. Chinese military weapons lack practical testing.
Chinese weapons are usually sold cheap, but with additional maintenance costs, they are not much cheaper than products of the same level. In addition, most of China's exported weapons have not been tested in actual combat. Unlike the United States, which has been involved in wars everywhere, China has not fought in wars since it spent 30 days training Vietnam in 1979. From 1979 to today, China has been at peace for 41 years. I hope that China will always maintain peace, not participate in any wars, and not harm the lives of any soldiers. This is an ordinary person's perspective, but in the eyes of arms dealers and in the arms trading industry, practical combat is the best promotional advertisement. The United States participates in wars everywhere, actively spreading death and fear. Sometimes, the United States itself does not take action and uses "proxy warfare". American weapons frequently appear on various battlefields, testing American military equipment time and time again in actual combat. These are the best promotional advertisements for American military equipment. Last year, Azerbaijan used drones to beat "Armenia" to the ground, and Türkiye used TB2 armed drones.
Because this UAV directly decided the victory or defeat of the war on the battlefield, it immediately became a star product of Türkiye's arms export, and its sales increased significantly.
PLA electronic jamming weapons. In contrast, China's pterosaur unmanned aerial vehicle surpasses the TB2 in all performance aspects and outperforms the TB2. But as the saying goes, practical experience is the best form of advertising. Good products do not necessarily mean good sales. The rise of China has changed the military situation.
In 1990, China's military spending was unparalleled in the world, accounting for only 2%. In 2018, China's global military expenditure accounted for 14%. The increasing military spending of powerful countries has also changed the pattern of military weapons, and the military industry is no longer traditional military research and development production. More and more advanced technology companies are actively embracing the military industry and collaborating with traditional military enterprises. Transforming the future arms industry into a composite industrial cluster that integrates technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and robotics. Industrial clusters like this are either tightly knit together by powerful governments (like state-owned enterprises) or massive unicorn companies (like the military industrial enterprises constantly acquired by the United States). Going it alone, it's impossible to get a share of this military cake. However, under the epidemic, the increasingly prosperous military industry inevitably gives people a sense of sadness. Those countries that are embroiled in geopolitical conflicts and have become dumping grounds for arms can never control their own destiny. They have become tragic victims of the massive arms trade.
Source: Military of Strong Countries